Weather Assessment Friday 7/20/2018

Update 1: Please see the attached update to today’s severe weather assessment. The biggest change is the upgrade to a Moderate Risk for southern Indiana and the expansion of the Enhanced Risk for the rest of the state. Damaging winds, large hail, flooding, tornadoes, and frequent lightning are all possible hazards today. The Madison County EMA Warning Division will continue to maintain awareness and provide updates as warranted.

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Weather Assessment 7:00 AM . Severe weather is a definite possibility today with a Southerly flow of warm moist air into the area this morning and an approaching cold front later in the day. Storms Prediction Center (NWS) has Madison County in an Enhanced region for severe storms with a Moderate region at the S part of IN. Gusting winds along with large hail and tornadoes are all possible with these storms. IA had several tornadoes yesterday afternoon from this system. Timing is difficult to have confidence in with NWS saying anywhere from 1-10 pm. Best chance is for some rain and storms this morning and then a dry period followed by the main event this afternoon. Looks probable for a squall line to form to our NW in the 1-3 pm time frame. This is definitely a system to be aware of during the day. Storm spotters may be needed this afternoon. Models seem to indicate that the system may weaken as it approaches the E part of the state but there is still a considerable divergence in various models. With the County Fair at Alexandria, we will need to be particularly concerned for the activities there. Anyone at the fair should have a plan where to seek shelter in the event of severe weather while you are there. Remember you can text MADISONCOEMA to 888-777 to receive free weather alerts on your phone from Madison County EMA and the NWS.